# FOOTO PREDICTO 3.24.5 — Standard situational adjustments

This release promotes the 3.24.4 situational score correction to **default ON**. The single-game experimental toggle is removed. The existing fitted probability classifier remains unchanged.

- Conservative recent-result signals are calculated strictly from games prior to the matchup. No current sportsbook prices are required.
- Corrected expected score margin is capped to ±2.5 points, keeping projected total unchanged.
- All 14 Week 8 games have a saved 3.24.5 forecast; seven were re-simulated (1,000 runs each) and seven unadjusted games retained exact original simulations.
- The original 3.24.3 Week 8 ledger is retained in `week8-forecast-ledger-3243.json`. The updated ledger and scorecard now use 3.24.5 by default.
- Forecast inputs, including roster and weather assumptions, remain frozen at October 27, 2026. Live game-day injuries and weather might change subsequent new simulations.
- Historical trends and fitted coefficients are exploratory; retrospective gains were modest and are not a guarantee of better future predictive accuracy.

These are *model predictions*, not known results.