# Current release: 3.16 — October 15, 2026

All-team personnel checked about 9:17 a.m. Eastern; 79 completed games through October 12. New **Weekly Scorecard** shows saved pregame predictions, final scores and accuracy markers. Week 6 has 1,000 simulations per matchup. See [the update report](UPDATE_2026_10_15.md) for current coverage, grading rules, limitations and continuation instructions. The notes below retain historical methodology and release history; their older cutoffs are not the current cutoff.

# Footo Predicto 3.15 — October 12, 2026

All 32 rosters and injury feeds checked at 7:31 AM Eastern. Performance inputs include 78 completed games through October 11; Monday Bills–Rams remains pending. Available Sunday data now updates team form, player usage, tendencies, penalties and specialists.

New: independently charted interception-worthy throws provide a small, sample-shrunk QB turnover correction, capped at ±10% relative to the existing interception chance. The chronological test showed a small benefit, not proof of improved game-score accuracy. Missing charting is not treated as safe passing. The alternative pressure-to-sack update was tested and rejected.

Verified final-report clearance supersedes practice restrictions. Expired prior-game designations no longer suppress next-game injury adjustments. All unresolved injuries and questionable designations remain conservative exclusions; reserve activation and concussion clearance require evidence. This is a timestamped snapshot, not a live injury feed.

Line observations remain through Week 4; the WR/CB report remains Week 5. Exact coverage shells remain historical. These cutoffs are shown honestly.

The complete update, source audit, frozen forecast evaluation, limitations and rebuild commands are in `docs/UPDATE_2026_10_12.md` in the source checkpoint. No deployment was performed.

## Earlier methodology and release notes (superseded where stated above)

# 3.14 personnel update — October 9, 2026

All 32 rosters and injury feeds checked at 11:25 AM Eastern; official Week 5 tables cover all 30 playing teams. Swift (0.85), Goedert (0.90) and Parkinson (0.85) have labeled conditional expected-return scenarios with reduced carry/target selection weights, not confirmed snap caps. Donald and Watson have conditional expected-return scenarios without invented individual snap reductions. Other unresolved injuries remain excluded. Full practice does not activate an injured-reserve player or clear concussion protocol. Available overrides remove workload limits; Absent overrides exclude the player. Workload weights apply only to the specified upcoming game and reach the same plays used for player averages.

These personnel changes supersede earlier blanket-exclusion descriptions below. Performance inputs remain through October 5. Software validation is not evidence of improved predictive accuracy. Detailed audit and sources are in the source checkpoint's `docs/PERSONNEL_2026_10_09.md` and `research/2026-10-09`.

## Prior methodology and validation notes

# Footo Predicto 3.8 sources — checked October 6, 2026

All 32ESPNroster/depth requests plus injury feed succeeded. Retrieval finished12:56:53UTC/8:56a.m.Eastern; injury feed timestamp12:55:39UTC. Raw inputs and timestamps are archived. This is a dated snapshot.

| Evidence | Actual source age / coverage |
| --- | --- |
| Schedule and weekly team stats | 64 final games through October 5;128 team-game boxes |
| PBP and FTN | 7,815 qualified 2026 plays;7,692 FTN joins; Monday detailed charting pending |
| Rosters/depth/injury news | All 32teams checkedOctober 6morning;2,542 roster entries |
| Official game reports | 318 rows/all 32Week 4tables; Week 5route still servesWeek 4 |
| Snap counts | Includes completedWeek 4games; missing game coverage recorded |
| WR/CB chart | Week 4 edition, modified Sep 30; inferred observation cutoff Sep 28;192reconciled identities |
| Line win rates | Through Week 3 / Sep 28, reported Sep 29; freshly checkedOct6unchanged |
| Exact coverage/pressure participation | 2025regularseason; no2026asset in checked release |
| Fitted score model | Configurationselected 2023; trained 2011–2024; preserved coefficients |

## Performance and tactical evidence

- [nflverse schedule/results](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/master/data/games.csv)
- [2026 weekly team statistics](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/stats_team/stats_team_week_2026.csv)
- [Play-by-play](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/pbp)
- [FTN charting](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/ftn_charting) / [definitions](https://nflreadr.nflverse.com/articles/dictionary_ftn_charting.html)
- [FTN participation](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/pbp_participation) / [definitions](https://nflreadr.nflverse.com/articles/dictionary_participation.html)
- [PFR advanced statistics](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/pfr_advstats)
- [Player identifiers](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/players)
- [Snap counts](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/snap_counts)
- [ESPN WR/CB PDF](https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/26/NFL26_CS_WRCB.pdf)
- [ESPN line win rates](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49742016/2026-win-rates-team-player-rankings-pass-rush-run-stop-blocking)

FTN Data via nflverse and its charting/participation-derived profiles are attributed and shared under CC BY-SA 4.0. Other nflverse inputs use CC BY 4.0subject to original provider terms. ESPN sources are attributed to ESPN; public availability does not grant blanket redistribution permission. No full article text is reproduced in the app.

Current manifests: `research/matchups-2026-10-06/sources.json`, `research/coverage-2026-10-06/source-audit.json`, `research/2026-10-06/fetch-summary.json`, `primary-source-manifest.json`. Historical fitted research remains in `research/accuracy/`; original coefficients and historical source age are not relabeled current.

## Availability primary and team sources

- [NFL Sunday injury roundup](https://www.nfl.com/news/notable-injuries-news-sunday-week-4-games)
- [NFL Week 4officialreport](https://www.nfl.com/injuries/league/2026/reg4)
- [ESPN injury/news feed](https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/injuries)

- [ARI roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/ari) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [ARI depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/ari) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [ARI injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/ari) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [ATL roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/atl) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [ATL depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/atl) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [ATL injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/atl) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [BAL roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/bal) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [BAL depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/bal) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [BAL injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/bal) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [BUF roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/buf) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [BUF depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/buf) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [BUF injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/buf) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CAR roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/car) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CAR depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/car) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CAR injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/car) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CHI roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/chi) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CHI depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/chi) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CHI injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/chi) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CIN roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/cin) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CIN depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/cin) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CIN injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/cin) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CLE roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/cle) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CLE depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/cle) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [CLE injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/cle) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [DAL roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/dal) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [DAL depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/dal) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [DAL injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/dal) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [DEN roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/den) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [DEN depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/den) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [DEN injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/den) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [DET roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/det) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [DET depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/det) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [DET injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/det) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [GB roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/gb) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [GB depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/gb) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [GB injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/gb) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [HOU roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/hou) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [HOU depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/hou) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [HOU injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/hou) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [IND roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/ind) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [IND depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/ind) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [IND injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/ind) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [JAX roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/jax) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [JAX depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/jax) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [JAX injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/jax) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [KC roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/kc) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [KC depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/kc) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [KC injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/kc) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [LAC roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/lac) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [LAC depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/lac) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [LAC injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/lac) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [LA roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/lar) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [LA depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/lar) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [LA injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/lar) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [LV roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/lv) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [LV depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/lv) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [LV injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/lv) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [MIA roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/mia) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [MIA depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/mia) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [MIA injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/mia) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [MIN roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/min) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [MIN depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/min) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [MIN injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/min) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NE roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/ne) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NE depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/ne) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NE injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/ne) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NO roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/no) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NO depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/no) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NO injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/no) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NYG roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/nyg) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NYG depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/nyg) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NYG injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/nyg) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NYJ roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/nyj) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NYJ depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/nyj) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [NYJ injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/nyj) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [PHI roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/phi) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [PHI depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/phi) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [PHI injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/phi) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [PIT roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/pit) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [PIT depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/pit) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [PIT injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/pit) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [SEA roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/sea) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [SEA depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/sea) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [SEA injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/sea) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [SF roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/sf) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [SF depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/sf) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [SF injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/sf) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [TB roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/tb) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [TB depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/tb) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [TB injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/tb) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [TEN roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/ten) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [TEN depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/ten) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [TEN injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/ten) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [WAS roster](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/roster/_/name/wsh) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [WAS depth chart](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/wsh) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [WAS injuries](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/wsh) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [Official NFL Week 4 practice and game designations, all 32 teams](https://www.nfl.com/injuries/) — checked 2026-10-06.
- [Ja'Marr Chase reviewed source](https://www.nfl.com/news/notable-injuries-news-sunday-week-4-games) — see archived date and decision.
- [Lamar Jackson reviewed source](https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/lamar-jackson-ankle-injury-ravens-titans-tyler-huntley) — see archived date and decision.
- [Marcus Mariota reviewed source](https://www.nfl.com/news/commanders-qb-marcus-mariota-knee-injury-colts-athan-kaliakmanis) — see archived date and decision.
- [Caleb Williams reviewed source](https://www.chicagobears.com/news/injury-update-caleb-williams-officially-ruled-out-for-sunday-s-game-vs-jets) — see archived date and decision.
- [Baker Mayfield reviewed source](https://www.buccaneers.com/news/jalon-daniels-will-remain-bucs-starter-baker-mayfield-absence) — see archived date and decision.
- [Carl Granderson reviewed source](https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-4-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-16-games) — see archived date and decision.

Coaching refresh: ESPN Mike Clay current staff tables, 2025 and 2026 projections (`https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/26/NFLDK2026_CS_ClayProjections2026.pdf` and year-25 counterpart); all official staff page request outcomes, SHA256 hashes and timestamps archived under research/coaching-2026-10-06. Penalties derive from the same completed-game nflverse PBP archives used for scouting, including enforced flag type, team and yards. No private tracking or coach causal-rating source is claimed.

October8 sources: all32 ESPN site API roster/depth responses and the all-team injury feed, official NFL Week5 tables supplemented by seven verified Week5 team-report pages, Ravens/Commanders/Eagles official announcements, new ESPN Week5 WR/CB PDF and Week4 line tables, latest nflverse PBP/FTN/player/advanced-stat/snap inputs. Current request timestamps/hashes/failures are archived under research/2026-10-08 and matchups-2026-10-08. Exact participation release checkedOctober8 and still ends2025. Specialist estimates derive from archived PBP, not private tracking. Prior source captures retain their original dates.

## Version 3.11 player attribution

Current offensive rosters and kickers reuse the archived October 8 ESPN roster/depth snapshot, current availability, and the 2025/2026 nflverse play-by-play and FTN archives. `research/build_player_usage.py` derives situational carries/targets and separate QB scramble profiles; it does not make a new live-data freshness claim. See `PLAYER_STATS.md` for unmatched IDs, regularization and allocation diagnostic limitations.

## October 8 afternoon injury refresh — version 3.12

ESPN league injury feed (all 32 teams), NFL Week 5 league tables, Bengals official injury report and official Chase protocol update were archived at 17:22 UTC / 1:22 p.m. Eastern. `research/2026-10-08-afternoon/sources.json` retains request times and hashes. The morning roster/depth sources were retained rather than represented as freshly checked this afternoon. Participation exclusions are now deterministic under the requested conservative policy; this does not turn practice listings into official out designations.